Joined: 12 Aug 2017
|Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:28 pm Post subject: the season is simulated 10, 000 times
|The 29 NBA teams that are not the Warriors should brace themselves: Their likelihood of knocking off Golden State are even longer this season. The Warriors have a 57. 9 percent chance to repeat as NBA champs, according to preseason numbers from ESPN's Basketball Power Listing (BPI). That makes them even heavier favorites than they were this time last year, when they were still the likeliest team to win it all (52. 4 percent) by an overwhelming border.
BPI is a forward-looking model that predicts the effectiveness of each team on offense, defense and altogether. In making its game prophecy, the model takes into account factors such as the strength of the two teams, the game's location and rest differential between the two squads. BPI simulates the season 10, 000 Retro Stephen Curry jersey times to create its projections for both the season and the playoffs.
During the season, the model will adjust daily to include information gathered from every game that is played. But in the preseason, with no games played so far, the model is based on past performance combined with Vegas win totals.
And right now, that tells us...
The Warriors are really, really good
Breaking news, right? But seriously, it is notable that they are even heavier favorites than we were looking at a year ago. The reason for that is simple: The model, quite frankly, thinks the Warriors are better than it did this time last year. Not better than how they appeared -- that's a different question altogether -- but how good they were expected to be.
BPI believes the Warriors, who are returning all the key players from last season's great run, are 9. 4 points better than the average team. That breaks down to a +5. 6 rating on offense and a +3. 7 on defense (that adds up to Cheap Stephen Curry jersey 9. 3, but as a result of rounding their total BPI rating is +9. stephen curry jersey 4).
We mentioned earlier that the season is simulated 10, 000 times to create BPI's projections. Guess how many times the Warriors made the playoffs in those simulations? Yep, all 10, 000. In fact, they never finished worse than the 5-seed in a simulation.